Making Hounslow Safe

Serious Violence Duty - Strategic Needs Assessment 2022-23

Hounslow Overview

2021 Census

  • Hounslow’s population was 288k (it is forecast to grow to 320k by 2033), with a BAME population of 56% compared to 49% in 2011.
  • Disability: “Disabled, limited a little”: 7%, “Disabled, limited a lot”: 8%, Not disabled: 85%
  • Ethnicity: All residents: Asian – 37%, Black – 7%, Other – 12%, White – 44%. Aged 18+: Asian – 37%, Black – 6%, Other – 10%, White – 47%. Aged 10-24: Asian – 37%, Black – 11%, Other – 16%, White – 37%.
  • Age: 0-9yo: 13%, 10-24yo: 18%, 25-64yo: 57%, 65yo+: 12%

Other data

  • Hounslow remains an averagely deprived borough based on current IMD data.
  • The latest 2021/22 JSNA noted 62% of adults were overweight or obese (London: 56%).
  • ONS data for March 2023 shows Hounslow residents reported better personal wellbeing than London across all four measures: Life Satisfaction, Life is Worthwhile, Happiness and Anxiety
     

Under 25s

  • Victims were gender balanced but almost 5 out of 6 suspects was male.
  • Factors such as disability or a hate-crime flag featured in only 2% of offences, and the use of a bicycle, moped or scooter in just 1% of offences involving under-25s.
  • Almost no gang and county line offences were flagged in Police crime data. 
  • Hounslow Central and Hanworth Park were two of the three wards with the highest per 1,000 rates in both 2021/22 and 2022/23. Feltham West emerged as a hot-spot in 2022/23.
  • The Hounslow Central, Hanworth Park and Feltham West wards accounted for 27% of all serious violence in the borough that involved under-25s.
  • Disproportionality: Black young people were overrepresented as suspects* by a factor of 3:1 and as victims by 1.6:1.

*Where a suspect description was recorded. Source: Metropolitan Police

Sexual Violence

  • Disability is a significant risk factor for victims of sexual violence.
  • The riskiest location for sexual violence was in the home, but there is indirect evidence of a reluctance of victims to engage with the Police in this situation.
  • Disproportionality: Black people were overrepresented as suspects* by about 3:1 and as victims by about 2:1. Black suspects were less likely to live at the same address as the victim.

Domestic Abuse

  • Victims:     75% female.
  • Suspects:    82% male
  • DA predominantly affected adults rather than younger people.
  • The use of weapons was much more prevalent in domestic abuse than sexual violence cases, but less than in serious violence cases affecting under-25s.
  • Threats to kill (23% of cases) were frequently used to against victims, but the overall level of injuries suggests that this did not lead to significant physical harm to the victim.
  • Disproportionality: Black people were overrepresented as suspects* by about 2.5:1 and as victims by about 1.5:1. Black suspects were equally likely to share an address with their victim.

*Where a suspect profile was recorded. Source: Metropolitan Police Box Data

Substance Abuse

The Addiction Recovery Community (ARC) is a free and confidential service that helps Hounslow residents to break a cycle of addiction to alcohol and drugs. In June 2023:

  • The number of ARC users reached 1,165, from 1,068 in 2022 and 1,025 in 2021.
  • There were an estimated 171 drug users aged 15-24 in Hounslow, compared to 542 aged 25-34. This reflects societal changes over the last 20 years with fewer young people experimenting with drugs and alcohol. However, there is a high level of unmet need with only 5% (9/171) of individuals aged 15-24 in treatment, compared to 14% (78/542) aged 25-34 and 35% (479/1381) aged 35-64.
  • The level of unmet need for alcohol was 80.3%, compared to 83.6% in December 2022, reflecting a rise in the number of people entering treatment for alcohol misuse from 313 to 382 in the first half of 2023. An age breakdown for alcohol users is not currently available.
  • Closer work between ARC ,Probation and the Prison enables the seamless transition of prisoners into community treatment. The proportion of ex-prisoners entering treatment in Hounslow rose from 16% in December 2022 to 39% in August 2023.
  • In 2023, better joint working by ARC Outreach, Probation and the Prison Service resulted in the proportion of ex-prisoners with a history of alcohol and drug misuse receiving community treatment directly after release rising from 16% in December 2022 to 39% by August 2023.
  • Project ADDER will coordinate treatment services with the Police and criminal justice system, to divert offenders to community-based treatment, reduce drug related offending, and disrupt criminal networks. Project Adder will start in Hounslow in early 2024.

Source: Hounslow Public Health Data

Children Known to Social Care

  • The proportion of children with a statutory Child Protection (CP) plan for Physical or Sexual Abuse was 8% on 8th November 2023, compared to the latest England benchmark figure of 10%. The children’s ages ranged from zero to 16.
  • Hounslow Children's Safeguarding and Specialist Services (CSSS) proactively identify young people at risk of serious violence using a screening tool that went live during 2023. The tool is designed to quickly identify those at the highest risk, with this cohort subject to reassessment every six weeks.

Police Trust and Confidence

Trust on the Police 21/22: Hounslow 80%; London 73%; Gap +7%

A demographic breakdown is not available at borough level due to small sample sizes.
22/23: Hounlsow 76%; London 71%; Gap +5%
Confidence in the Police 21/22: Hounslow 55%; London 49%; Gap +6%  
22/23: HOunslow 52%; London 50%; Gap +2%
  • Hounslow public trust and confidence in the Police fell in 2022/23, by 4% points on the Trust measure from 80% to 76%, and by 3% from 55% to 52% on the Confidence measure ("Police do a good job").
  • Hounslow remained ahead of the London benchmark for both measures in 2022/23, but by reduced margins compared to 2021/22 (Source).

Probation

Three key tools are used to manage offenders and their risk to the community:

  1. Integrated Offender Management (IoM) – Only used for persistent and problematic offending.
  2. Multi-Agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA) – Provides joined-up management of sexual and violent offenders, principally by Probation, the Prison Service, the Police, and for under-18s, Children’s Services and the YJS. MAPPA cases include high-risk violent offenders sentenced to at least a year of custody. 
  3. Risk of Serious Harm (ROSH) – An assessment that determines each offender's risk to society.
  • IoM, MAPPA and ROSH data indicates that the Probation cohort in Hounslow presents a lower risk to the public than the London average.
  • The Probation disability rate is nearly double that of the general Hounslow population.
  • Disproportionality: Black people are overrepresented by a factor of 3.5:1 in the Probation cohort, a level that broadly aligns with the rates noted in the Serious Violence Under-25 and Sexual Violence slides earlier.

Source: HMPPS data

Permanent Exclusions

  • Almost all primary school exclusions involved boys. For secondaries, the gender split was 67% Male – 33% Female. 43% of all exclusions were in Years 9/10 (ages 13/14 at start of year).
  • Hounslow’s published PEx rate for 2021/22 is higher than London. The borough’s PEx rate rose by 21% in 2022/23, due to more primary school exclusions and of Year 7 children.
  • Reasons stated for PEx were Disruption – 41%, Violence – 33%, Weapons – 14%, Other – 12%.
  • Recent published research by the Behavioural Insight Team has shown a causal link between PEx and increased rates of youth custody. An analysis on the permanently excluded cohort is being undertaken by Hounslow, to better understand their outcomes and accurately assess the proportion that subsequently engage in serious youth violence and other crime.

Source: Hounslow Education Records

Youth Justice Service (YJS)

  • The YJS saw no change in referrals in 2022/23 for serious violence, compared to 2021/22.
  • Disproportionality: The YJS instituted an action plan which focuses on decision-making at key points in the criminal justice system. Black children were overrepresented in the serious violence referral cohort in 2022/23 by about 2.3:1. However, there was no disproportionality in the group of children entering the criminal justice system for the first time during this period, which may be early evidence that the action plan is working.
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